SpaceX IPO: 3 Reasons I'm Not Buying at $135 a Share

Tomorrow, June 12, SpaceX starts trading on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX. The numbers are historic: a fixed price of $135 per share, a $1.75 trillion valuation — bigger than Microsoft — and roughly $75 billion raised, the largest IPO ever.

And I'm not buying. Not because I doubt the company — I'm already a shareholder. Because the setup is wrong, and the rules I trade by exist precisely for days like this. Here are my three reasons.

An IPO gives you zero data. No chart structure, no institutional footprints, no base to measure risk against. What you do have is statistics on how hyped listings behave, and they are not on the buyer's side.

Apple needed about 70 months to sustainably reclaim its offering price after the post-IPO fade. Tesla chopped sideways for roughly 34 months before its first real trend started. Palantir took about 32 months to come back to where it listed.

The pattern repeats because the mechanics repeat. Year one, early private investors take their exit. Year two, the stock finally lands on institutional radars. Year three, it has real public financials and forecasts analysts can model. On average, the hype takes about three years to settle. That's not a reason to never own an IPO — it's a reason not to pay the first-day price for it. This is the core of the rules-based approach I run: no confirmed trend, no entry.

On listing day, an estimated 4,000 current and former SpaceX employees become millionaires — engineers, welders, even cafeteria staff, because SpaceX paid every level of the company partly in equity. On top of that, up to 5% of the offering is reserved for employees and friends of the company in a directed share program — with no lock-up at all. The main lock-up window opens between September and December 2026.

I don't begrudge anyone their payday. But I also don't believe in miracles. A newly minted millionaire whose net worth sits in one volatile ticker behaves predictably: either they sell within the first year, or the overhang of everyone like them keeps the stock pinned for two to four years — exactly the dead zone described in Reason 1. Massive insider supply meeting first-day retail euphoria is a trade I want to watch, not hold.

I bought into SpaceX on the private market back in 2023 and wrote about it at the time. The IPO at a $1.75 trillion valuation is, for me, a mark-up event, not a buying opportunity. Adding at $135 would mean averaging up into peak hype with no chart — violating both rules above at once.

Am I selling? Not planning to. But that's not a promise. 😁

If you want SPCX in your portfolio, the patient play is to let it build its first proper base — the classic IPO base that Kathy Donnelly's research in The Lifecycle Trade documents across hundreds of listings. Her interview on IPO and super-growth investing is the single best hour on the subject.

And if you'd rather have a systematic process do the waiting for you, that's what my Pure US Growth strategy is built for — or book a consultation and we'll talk through it.

When does SpaceX stock start trading? SpaceX priced its IPO on June 11, 2026 at a fixed $135 per share and begins trading on Nasdaq on June 12 under the ticker SPCX, at a valuation of about $1.75 trillion — the largest IPO in history at roughly $75 billion raised.

Should you buy SpaceX stock at the IPO? History argues for patience. Apple took about 70 months to sustainably reclaim its offering price, Tesla about 34, and Palantir about 32. Post-IPO hype typically settles over roughly three years as early investors exit, institutions build positions, and public financials accumulate. A rules-based investor waits for the first confirmed base instead of paying the first-day price.

When do SpaceX insiders get to sell? A directed share program covering up to 5% of the offering for employees and friends carries no lock-up at all, and the main lock-up window opens between September and December 2026. An estimated 4,000 current and former employees become millionaires at listing, which creates meaningful potential selling pressure in the first year.