Q1 2026 Results: CAN SLIM Strategy Stayed Positive While S&P 500 Fell -4% | Trend Alpha

The first quarter of 2026 marked the end of the bull market. The S&P 500 dropped -3.84%, the Nasdaq fell even harder, and Bitcoin collapsed from $95,000 to below $67,000. Most investors gave back months of gains in a matter of weeks.

Our Pure US Growth strategy finished Q1 at +0.23%. Our Pure Crypto Growth strategy finished at -9.03% against the Bitwise 10 Index's -25.36%. Both strategies beat their benchmarks — not by making money, but by not losing it when everyone else did.

Here is our full track record for context. In 2024, Pure US Growth returned +85.3% versus the S&P 500's +25%, and Pure Crypto Growth returned +33.3% versus Bitwise 10's +7.27%. In 2025, Pure US Growth delivered +31.12% versus the S&P 500's +18.4%, and Pure Crypto Growth returned +33.54% versus Bitwise 10's +0.6%. And in Q1 2026, Pure US Growth eked out +0.23% versus the S&P 500's -3.84%, generating +4.07% of alpha. Pure Crypto Growth lost -9.03%, but that was +16.33% of alpha over the Bitwise 10's -25.36%.

The lesson? In a bear market, the best offense is defense.

January started with the S&P 500 near all-time highs. By March, the index had broken below its 200-day simple moving average — a level it hadn't breached since early 2025 — and entered a full correction. The Nasdaq fell harder, dragged down by technology sector weakness. The crypto market, which had been struggling since late 2025, continued its decline with Bitcoin falling nearly 30%.

The triggers were a combination of Trump administration tariffs, geopolitical escalation including US-Iran tensions and the Greenland situation, and a sharp rotation out of growth stocks into defensive sectors. By the end of March, only 20% of S&P 500 stocks were trading above their 50-day moving average — a level where market bottoms have historically formed, but without confirmation.

For momentum and growth investors like us, this environment means one thing: step aside and wait.

Pure US Growth returned +0.23% in Q1 2026, outperforming the S&P 500 by +4.07%. The best trade of the quarter was the one we didn't make.

We started the year with an active approach. In January alone, the portfolio traded over 15 positions across growth stocks and ETFs. Our best single trade was FIX (Comfort Systems USA) — bought at $1,022, sold at $1,136 three weeks later for +11.11%. An excellent CAN SLIM setup with strong fundamentals in the infrastructure sector.

We also traded TQQQ (multiple round trips with mixed results), XMTR (Xometry, where one leg made +4.55%), NVT (nVent Electric, +4.09% on a full position with revenue growing +22% and accelerating EPS), and IBKR (Interactive Brokers, stopped out for -1.81%). Even quality setups fail in a deteriorating market, and IBKR was our early warning sign.

By mid-February, the market tone shifted dramatically. The S&P 500 started rolling over, and we began cutting exposure aggressively.

AXSM (Axsome Therapeutics) was our most painful trade — entered around $185, stopped out at $168 and $180 for losses of -9.01% and -2.42%. Strong fundamentals, but the market pulled the rug. On the other side, HROW (Harrow Health) delivered +8.66% as healthcare held up during the initial selloff. BWXT (BWX Technologies), a nuclear energy play, lost -3.07% — the defense thesis was right, but our timing was early. SHLS (Shoals Technologies) came out at essentially breakeven, the kind of flat outcome that feels like a loss but preserved capital.

By late February, we had moved to 80%+ cash and started hedging with inverse positions.

March was our most disciplined month. As the S&P 500 broke below the 200-day simple moving average and institutional funds began liquidating, we made a conscious decision to sit on the sidelines.

We ran a few selective positions. A TQQQ short lost -5.86% as the market whipsawed with violent counter-rallies — even our short didn't work in this chop. But a probe short on EIS (iShares MSCI Israel Cap) gained +7.19% on geopolitical risk, and a short position in ELVR (Sayona Mining) returned +7.8% as a defensive play.

By the end of Q1, the portfolio was 100% in cash, preserving all gains and avoiding the worst of the correction.

Pure Crypto Growth returned -9.03% in Q1 2026 versus the Bitwise 10 Index at -25.36%, generating +16.33% of alpha. The crypto strategy lost money — there is no sugarcoating that. But it lost dramatically less than the benchmark, and the reason is the same discipline that drives the US equity strategy: cut losses fast and move to cash when the trend breaks.

In January, we made our last long attempts. BCH (Bitcoin Cash) was sold at $585 for -8.86%, one of our first signals the crypto cycle was turning. BNB (Binance Coin) saw multiple entries in the $942-950 range, each getting rejected with small losses. Our last major long was BTC at $95,027, sold at $91,194 for -4.03%.

By February and March we were in full defensive mode, making only probe-sized attempts. LINK (Chainlink) lost -6.46% as the DeFi recovery narrative failed to materialize. XLM (Stellar) was our biggest single-trade dollar loss of the quarter at -4.78%. XRP eked out a small +0.9% gain — one of the few crypto trades that worked.

By mid-March, the Pure Crypto Growth portfolio was 100% in cash, where it remains today. Every follow-through day attempt has failed. Bitcoin has been rejected at the 21 and 50-day moving averages simultaneously — four times. We will re-enter when the trend confirms, not before.

Cash is a position, not a failure. The most counterintuitive thing about Q1 is that our best performance came from not trading. While the S&P 500 dropped nearly 4%, we eked out a small positive return on the US strategy entirely through selective entries and aggressive cash management.

Cut losses fast — even on good setups. Several Q1 trades had excellent fundamental profiles. AXSM, NVT, and AIP all had strong earnings and growth metrics. They still lost money because the market environment was deteriorating. Our rule remains unchanged: -5% to -7% maximum loss per position, no exceptions. This rule saved us from much larger drawdowns.

Don't fight the trend. When the S&P 500 broke below the 200-day simple moving average in March, we stopped looking for long setups entirely. We shifted to selective short positions and kept the portfolio in cash. Fighting a bear market is how traders give back years of gains in weeks.

The market tells you when it's ready. We see excellent setups forming right now — FIX, NBIS, HCC, and others. But we are not buying them. Not because they are bad setups, but because the market is not cooperating. Patience is not passive — it is the most active form of risk management.

We are entering Q2 in full defensive mode. Both portfolios are 100% in cash.

For the US market, the S&P 500 attempted a strong bounce in the first week of April — it looked like a short squeeze — but could not hold above the 200-day simple moving average. Market breadth jumped from 20% to 29% in three days, which is interesting but not conclusive. Earnings season starts soon, which could be the catalyst for either a recovery or a deeper correction. Historically, corrections last 3 to 9 months.

For crypto, the Bitwise 10 index is stuck below the 200-day moving average, and Bitcoin has failed four consecutive follow-through days. Declining volatility is the one encouraging sign — it often precedes trend changes. We would love for this to be the bottom, but we will not bet on hope.

For our portfolios, we have a clear watchlist: FIX (Comfort Systems), NBIS (Nebius Group), HCC (Warrior Met Coal), and several others forming late-stage bases. When the market confirms a new uptrend, we will be ready to deploy aggressively. Until then, cash is king.

Trend Alpha Corporation is a capital management firm founded by Victor Nelin, a 9th-place finisher in the 2024 United States Investing Championship with an +85.3% annual return. Our methodology is rooted in the teachings of Mark Minervini, William O'Neil, and Stan Weinstein — systematic stock selection through the CAN SLIM and VCP (Volatility Contraction Pattern) framework with strict risk management.

We manage portfolios across US equities, cryptocurrency, real estate, and venture investments for clients with a minimum of $100,000.

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