Market Insights https://trendalphacorporation.com Investment insights, USIC championship results, and market analysis from Victor Nelin, founder of Trend Alpha Corporation. en Sat, 04 Apr 2026 18:06:47 +0300 Top 20 in U.S. Investment Championship 2024 | Trend Alpha Corporation https://trendalphacorporation.com/tpost/us-investment-championship-2024 https://trendalphacorporation.com/tpost/us-investment-championship-2024?amp=true Tue, 31 Dec 2024 14:02:00 +0300 Victor Nelin finished Top 20 out of 451 traders in the USIC with +85.32% return. Learn about the verified momentum strategy behind Trend Alpha Corporation.

Top 20 in U.S. Investment Championship 2024 | Trend Alpha Corporation

How I Finished Top 20 in the U.S. Investment Championship — and What It Means for Your Portfolio

In 2024, 451 traders entered the U.S. Investment Championship. Real money. Real accounts. Independently verified results. No paper trading. No hypothetical returns.
I finished in the Top 20 with a +85.32% return on my Pure US Growth strategy. The S&P 500 returned +23% that same year.
This article explains what the championship is, why I entered, and what the result reveals about the investment process behind Trend Alpha Corporation.

What Is the U.S. Investment Championship?

The U.S. Investment Championship (USIC) is the oldest independently verified trading competition in the United States. It has been running since 1983, and its past winners include some of the most respected names in active portfolio management.
Mark Minervini, a momentum investing legend and author of multiple bestselling books, won the championship. David Ryan, a protege of William O’Neil, won it three times. These are not social media traders. They are professionals with decades-long track records.
The competition structure is straightforward: every participant trades their own real capital in a live brokerage account. Results are independently audited and verified. There is no simulated environment, no demo account, and no way to manipulate the numbers. You either perform, or you don’t.
For any portfolio manager claiming to generate alpha, the USIC is the closest thing the industry has to a public proving ground.

Why I Entered the Competition

Before founding Trend Alpha Corporation, I spent 12 years in corporate leadership roles at Google, PwC and many others FinTech companies. I built teams, launched products, and managed operations in high-pressure environments.
But throughout those years, I was also developing my own investment methodology. Starting in 2016, I studied the works of Mark Minervini, William O’Neil, and Stan Weinstein. I applied their principles to my own capital. I made mistakes, refined my process, and over eight years built a strategy that consistently outperformed the market.
By 2024, my income from investments was fully covering my living expenses. My six-year average annual return stood at 25%. I had also begun managing capital for a small group of private investors.
But I recognized a problem: in asset management, claims are easy. Anyone can show a screenshot of a brokerage statement. What I needed was independent, third-party verification that my results were real.
That is why I entered the U.S. Investment Championship. Not to win a trophy — but to create an auditable record that potential clients could verify.

The Strategy: CAN SLIM, VCP, and Systematic Risk Management

The investment approach I use at Trend Alpha Corporation is built on proven momentum methodologies, primarily CAN SLIM (developed by William O’Neil) and the Volatility Contraction Pattern (VCP) framework (refined by Mark Minervini).
In practice, this means I focus on U.S. growth equities with strong earnings acceleration, institutional sponsorship, and favorable technical setups. I buy stocks that are emerging from volatility contractions with above-average volume — a pattern that, historically, precedes significant price advances.
But the methodology is only half the story. The other half — and the part most people overlook — is risk management.
Position Sizing and Exposure Management
During the 2024 championship, there were stretches of weeks where I held 40–60% of the portfolio in cash. The market was choppy, setups were not clean, and most participants kept trading aggressively. I waited.
My risk rules are fixed and non-negotiable:
• Maximum risk per position: 1–1.25% of total portfolio value
• If the broad market is not trending, reduce exposure significantly
• Never average down on a losing position
• Cut losses fast; let winners run with a trailing stop system
These rules are not theoretical. They are the exact framework that kept drawdowns manageable during a year that broke many portfolios.
When I manage client capital at Trend Alpha Corporation, I apply the identical framework. No exceptions for larger accounts. No loosening rules because the market “feels” good. Process does not care about feelings. That is why it works.

The Result: +85.32% vs. S&P 500 at +23%

The Pure US Growth strategy returned +85.32% in 2024, verified by the USIC. For context, the S&P 500 returned approximately +23% over the same period.
But outperforming a benchmark in a single year is not, by itself, proof of skill. What matters is the consistency of the process and the risk-adjusted nature of the returns.
Over six years of managing my own capital (2018–2024), the strategy has averaged approximately 25% annually. There have been drawdowns. There have been periods of underperformance. But the process — grounded in systematic stock selection, strict position sizing, and active exposure management — has delivered compounding results over a meaningful time horizon.
The USIC result is one data point in that record. It is the most independently verified data point, and it confirms that the methodology works under live, competitive conditions.

What This Means for Investors

If you are a high-net-worth individual or institutional allocator evaluating active equity managers, here is what the USIC result tells you:
• The track record is verified. Not self-reported, not backtested, not cherry-picked. Independently audited by the USIC.
• The process is repeatable. Six years of consistent application, not a one-time lucky bet.
• Risk management is central, not an afterthought. The strategy prioritizes capital preservation through strict position sizing and exposure rules.
• Full transparency. Clients retain direct ownership of their accounts and can see every trade, every position, every decision in real time.

About Trend Alpha Corporation

Trend Alpha Corporation manages concentrated U.S. equity and cryptocurrency portfolios for qualified private investors. The minimum allocation is $100,000 USDT.
The firm operates two core strategies:
• Pure US Growth — Momentum-based equity strategy focused on CAN SLIM / VCP setups in U.S. markets. Returned +85.32% in 2024.
• Pure Crypto Growth — Systematic cryptocurrency portfolio applying the same risk management discipline. Returned +41.51% in 2024.
Victor Nelin, the founder and portfolio manager, brings 12 years of leadership experience at Google, PwC, Sberbank, and Gazprom, combined with 8+ years of active portfolio management.

Schedule a Conversation

If you are a qualified investor interested in understanding how the Pure US Growth or Pure Crypto Growth strategies could work for your capital, I am open to a 30-minute introductory conversation.
Visit trendalphacorporation.com to learn more and book a call.
]]> Growth Stock Trading Strategy: Interview with US Investing Championship Trader https://trendalphacorporation.com/tpost/interview-christopher-uhl-trading-champion https://trendalphacorporation.com/tpost/interview-christopher-uhl-trading-champion?amp=true Sun, 15 Feb 2026 14:02:00 +0300 Victor Nelin shares his growth stock trading strategy in an interview with Christopher Uhl — covering breakouts, risk management, market timing, and how he achieved +85% returns in 2024.

Growth Stock Trading Strategy: Interview with US Investing Championship Trader

Take More Vacations and Trade Less: What Consistent Trading Actually Looks Like

Victor Nelin, Founder of Trend Alpha Corporation, joins Christopher Uhl on the 10 Minute Stock Trader channel to discuss growth stock strategy, capital protection, and the discipline behind consistent returns.

The Interview

I recently had the privilege of sitting down with Christopher Uhl — founder of OVTLYR, two-time Top 100 Person in Finance, and host of the 10 Minute Stock Trader YouTube channel with over 42,000 subscribers and 5 million views — for an in-depth conversation about trading, strategy, and the mindset that drives consistent performance.
The interview title says it all: "Take More Vacations and Trade Less."
It sounds counterintuitive, but this principle is at the core of how I approach the markets. More activity does not mean more returns. In fact, the opposite is often true.
Watch the full interview: Take MORE Vacations and Trade LESS — Trading Champion
Christopher's channel: 10 Minute Stock Trader on YouTube

Buying Strength, Not Weakness

One of the central topics we discussed is why buying breakouts from strong bases consistently outperforms the popular strategy of "buying the dip." When a stock breaks out of a well-formed base on above-average volume, it signals that institutional money is entering the position. That is a fundamentally different setup than trying to catch a falling knife and hoping for a reversal.
My approach is rooted in the methodology developed by Mark Minervini and William O'Neil — two traders with decades of verified track records. After eight years of studying and applying these principles with my own capital, the results speak for themselves: +85% in 2024 and +31% in 2025, placing me in the top 20 of the U.S. Investing Championship.

The Overlooked Skill: Knowing When Not to Trade

Perhaps the most important topic Christopher and I explored is one that most traders actively avoid: sitting in cash.
When market conditions are uncertain — when breadth is deteriorating, leading stocks are failing on breakouts, and sector rotation is unclear — the highest-probability trade is no trade at all. Moving to cash is not a sign of weakness or indecision. It is a deliberate act of capital preservation that allows you to deploy aggressively when conditions improve.
This single principle — losing less than the market during corrections — is responsible for a significant portion of my long-term outperformance. You do not need to beat the index every single day. You need to protect your capital when the environment turns hostile.

Chart Analysis and Finding Emerging Leaders

We also discussed the practical process behind finding the next set of market leaders. Every week, I scan thousands of charts looking for stocks forming constructive bases — tight consolidation patterns with declining volume that suggest accumulation by institutions before the next move higher.
The key is identifying these patterns before they become obvious to the broader market. By the time a breakout makes headlines, the optimal risk-reward entry has often already passed. Systematic scanning, combined with an understanding of sector rotation and where institutional money is flowing, creates an edge that compounds over time.

From Corporate to Full-Time Trading

The conversation also touched on my transition from 12 years in the corporate world — including roles at Google, Sber, and PwC — to managing capital full-time through Trend Alpha Corporation. That shift required a completely different relationship with risk, discipline, and personal accountability. In a corporate role, the boundaries are defined for you. As an independent trader and fund manager, there are no boundaries — and that freedom is both the greatest advantage and the greatest challenge.

Risk Management: The Foundation

No trading strategy survives without robust risk management, and this was a recurring theme throughout the interview. Position sizing, predefined stop losses, and maximum portfolio exposure limits are not optional — they are the foundation that everything else is built on. The best trade idea in the world is worthless if a single loss can destroy your capital base.

Watch the Full Interview

The full conversation with Christopher Uhl covers these topics and more in detail. Whether you trade growth stocks, swing trade, or are building a systematic approach to the markets, I believe you will find practical value in this discussion.
Full interview: Take MORE Vacations and Trade LESS — Trading Champion
Christopher Uhl's channel: 10 Minute Stock Trader on YouTube
Victor Nelin is the founder of Trend Alpha Corporation, a U.S. Investing Championship participant, and a growth stock trader with a six-year average annual ROI of 25%.
]]> USIC 2025: +36.2% for Second Consecutive Year | Trend Alpha Corporation https://trendalphacorporation.com/tpost/us-investment-championship-2025 https://trendalphacorporation.com/tpost/us-investment-championship-2025?amp=true Wed, 31 Dec 2025 14:02:00 +0300 Victor Nelin achieved +36.2% in the 2025 U.S. Investment Championship, doubling the S&P 500 for the second straight year. Verified momentum strategy results.

USIC 2025: +36.2% for Second Consecutive Year | Trend Alpha Corporation

Two Consecutive Years in the U.S. Investment Championship: +36.2% in 2025

In 2024, I entered the U.S. Investment Championship for the first time and finished in the Top 20 with a +85.32% return. That result put Trend Alpha Corporation on the map as an independently verified active manager.
In 2025, I came back and did it again. Different market. Different conditions. Same process. The result: +36.2% in the USIC Stock Division, while the S&P 500 returned +17.9%.
One strong year can be luck. Two consecutive years of verified outperformance starts to look like a system that works.

2025 Was Not 2024

If you followed the markets in 2025, you know the year was nothing like 2024. Where 2024 offered a relatively smooth uptrend in U.S. equities, 2025 tested every participant with a completely different environment.
In the spring, the introduction of new tariff policies triggered a sharp selloff. The S&P 500 dropped nearly 19% from its highs. Headlines were dominated by trade war fears, recession calls, and widespread panic selling. Many active managers who had strong 2024 results gave back a significant portion of their gains.
Then the market reversed. As tariff rates were reduced through trade negotiations, stocks surged almost 39% off the April lows through year-end. The whipsaw caught both bears and bulls off guard.
This is exactly the kind of environment that separates process-driven managers from those who rely on a single market regime to generate returns.

How the Process Held Up

My approach at Trend Alpha Corporation did not change between 2024 and 2025. The methodology is the same: CAN SLIM stock selection, Volatility Contraction Pattern (VCP) entries, and strict systematic risk management.
What changed was how the process responded to different conditions.
During the spring selloff, the system did what it is designed to do: reduce exposure. When the broad market is in a confirmed downtrend and setups are failing, the rules require moving to a high cash position. This is not a discretionary decision. It is built into the framework.
When the market conditions improved and leading stocks began forming proper bases again, the system signaled re-entry. The strongest gains of the year came from positions initiated during the recovery phase, when most market participants were still paralyzed by the earlier selloff.
This is the core advantage of a rules-based approach: it removes emotion from both sides of the equation. You cut exposure when conditions deteriorate, and you re-engage when conditions improve. You do not need to predict what the market will do. You need to react to what it is doing.

The Numbers in Context

Here is a two-year comparison:
2024: Trend Alpha +85.32% | S&P 500 +25.0% | Outperformance: +60.3pp
2025: Trend Alpha +36.2% | S&P 500 +17.9% | Outperformance: +18.3pp
The 2025 return is lower than 2024 in absolute terms. That is expected. The market offered fewer high-conviction setups, and the system spent a meaningful portion of the year in cash to protect capital during the drawdown.
But the relevant metric is not the absolute return. It is the relationship between the return and the risk taken to achieve it. Beating the benchmark by 18 percentage points while holding significant cash through the worst selloff of the year reflects disciplined capital management.
Compounding both years, $100,000 invested in the Pure US Growth strategy at the start of 2024 would have grown to approximately $252,000 by the end of 2025. The same amount invested in the S&P 500 would have reached approximately $148,000.

Why Consistency Matters More Than Any Single Year

The investment management industry has no shortage of one-year outliers. Managers who took concentrated bets that happened to work, or who rode a single theme at the right time.
The question that matters for any investor allocating real capital is: can this manager repeat? Not the exact same return, but can they consistently apply a process that generates alpha across different market conditions?
Two years of USIC-verified results do not constitute a 20-year track record. I am not claiming that. What they do provide is something rare in the managed account space: independently audited evidence that the methodology produces results in both trending and volatile environments.
Combined with my six-year average annual return of approximately 25% on personal capital (2018–2024), the pattern is becoming harder to attribute to luck.

What This Means for Investors

If you are a high-net-worth individual or institutional allocator evaluating active equity managers, consider what the two-year USIC track record demonstrates:
• Verified, audited returns. Both years independently verified by the U.S. Investment Championship. Not self-reported. Not backtested.
• Consistency across different markets. +85.32% in a trending market (2024). +36.2% in a volatile, whipsaw market (2025). The process adapts.
• Capital preservation through drawdowns. While the S&P 500 dropped ~19% in the spring of 2025, the systematic risk rules reduced exposure and protected capital.
• Full transparency. Every client maintains direct ownership of their account and can verify every position in real time.

Looking Ahead

I will continue to compete in the U.S. Investment Championship. It remains the most credible way to publicly verify active management results, and I believe in submitting my process to that level of scrutiny.
The goal is not to chase a specific return number each year. The goal is to consistently apply a proven methodology, manage risk first, and let the compounding take care of itself.
That is the commitment I make to every investor who allocates capital with Trend Alpha Corporation.

Schedule a Conversation

If you are a qualified investor interested in learning how the Pure US Growth strategy could work for your portfolio, I welcome a 30-minute introductory conversation.
Visit trendalphacorporation.com to learn more and book a call.
]]> How CAN SLIM and VCP Methodology Delivered +85% Returns in 2024 https://trendalphacorporation.com/tpost/can-slim-vcp-strategy-results-2024 https://trendalphacorporation.com/tpost/can-slim-vcp-strategy-results-2024?amp=true Wed, 25 Mar 2026 10:24:00 +0300 Learn how CAN SLIM and VCP methodology produced +85% returns in 2024 for a USIC Top 20 trader. No management fee — performance fee only. Min $100K

How CAN SLIM and VCP Methodology Delivered +85% Returns in 2024

How CAN SLIM and VCP Methodology Delivered +85% Returns in 2024

Most actively managed funds fail to beat the S&P 500 over any meaningful time horizon. According to the SPIVA scorecard, more than 85% of large-cap fund managers underperformed the index over the past 15 years. Yet in 2024, a disciplined application of the CAN SLIM and VCP methodology produced a return of +85.3% — while the S&P 500 delivered roughly +25%.
This is not backtested theory. These are live, audited results from the Pure US Growth strategy at Trend Alpha Corporation, independently verified through the U.S. Investing Championship, where founder Victor Nelin ranked in the Top 20.
So what makes CAN SLIM and VCP different from the strategies that consistently fail to beat the market?

What Is CAN SLIM?

CAN SLIM is a growth stock selection framework developed by William O'Neil, founder of Investor's Business Daily. Each letter represents a key criterion for identifying stocks with the highest probability of making significant price moves:
C — Current Earnings. Quarterly earnings per share should show a significant increase year-over-year, ideally 25% or more.
A — Annual Earnings. Look for companies with a strong track record of annual earnings growth over the past three to five years.
N — New Products, Management, or Price Highs. Companies driving innovation or reaching new price highs tend to continue outperforming.
S — Supply and Demand. Stocks with tighter float and rising volume on breakouts signal institutional accumulation.
L — Leader or Laggard. Focus on market leaders with high relative strength, not lagging names hoping for a turnaround.
I — Institutional Sponsorship. Smart money should be buying — look for increasing fund ownership by top-performing institutions.
M — Market Direction. Even the best stocks struggle in a bear market. CAN SLIM requires reading the general market trend before taking positions.
The methodology is not about finding cheap stocks. It is about identifying the strongest companies in the strongest sectors during confirmed uptrends — and buying them at precisely the right moment.

What Is the VCP Pattern?

The Volatility Contraction Pattern, developed by Mark Minervini (two-time U.S. Investing Champion), is a technical entry framework that identifies the optimal buy point within a consolidation. The pattern forms when a stock pulls back from a high, then makes a series of tighter contractions — each pullback smaller than the last — with decreasing volume.
This contraction signals that sellers are exhausted and supply is drying up. When the stock breaks out of the final contraction on above-average volume, it often begins a significant move higher.
The VCP is not just a chart pattern. It is a supply-and-demand signal that tells a trader exactly when risk is lowest and potential reward is highest. Combined with CAN SLIM's fundamental screening, it creates a framework where both the company quality and the entry timing align.

How We Apply CAN SLIM and VCP at Trend Alpha

At Trend Alpha Corporation, we use CAN SLIM for stock selection and VCP for timing entries. But the methodology goes beyond just finding and buying stocks. Here is how the full process works:
Stock Universe Screening. We start by filtering the US equity market for stocks meeting CAN SLIM criteria: accelerating earnings, strong revenue growth, high relative strength rankings, and rising institutional sponsorship. This typically narrows the universe to 50-100 candidates at any given time.
Technical Setup Identification. From that shortlist, we wait for VCP patterns to form. Not every strong stock has a proper entry — patience is built into the system. We may watch a name for weeks before the setup appears.
Position Sizing and Risk Control. Every position is sized to risk no more than 1% to 1.25% of total portfolio value. This is non-negotiable. If a stock breaks below the stop-loss level, we exit immediately. This asymmetric risk control is what protects capital during inevitable losing trades.
Holding Period. Typical holding periods range from one to three months. We are not day traders and we are not long-term buy-and-hold investors. We capture the strongest phase of a stock's move and move on.
Market Direction Filter. Following O'Neil's M criterion, we reduce exposure or move to cash when the general market shows distribution signals. This kept us protected during multiple market pullbacks in 2024.

2024 Results: +85.3% vs. the S&P 500's ~25%

The Pure US Growth strategy produced an audited return of +85.3% in 2024. In the first half of 2025, the strategy added another +36.1%. These results were achieved while managing real client capital with a minimum account size of $100,000.
For context, the S&P 500 delivered approximately +25% in 2024. The average actively managed large-cap growth fund returned roughly +20-30%, with the vast majority trailing the index.
What separates these results from a typical fund? Three things:
Concentration. We typically hold 4-6 positions at any time, not 50-100. High conviction in the best setups.
Discipline. The 1% risk rule means a string of losing trades does not materially damage the portfolio. In a year with a +85% gain, many individual trades were still losses. The system works because winners are allowed to run while losers are cut immediately.
No style drift. We do not chase sectors, follow macro narratives, or try to predict Federal Reserve decisions. CAN SLIM tells us which stocks to own. VCP tells us when to buy. The market direction filter tells us when to step aside.

The USIC Credential: Independent Verification

Anyone can claim strong returns. That is why independent verification matters. The U.S. Investing Championship, running since 1983, is the longest-standing investment competition in the United States. Past participants include Mark Minervini, David Ryan, and Paul Tudor Jones.
In 2024, Victor Nelin competed in the USIC $1,000,000+ stock division and finished in the Top 20. This ranking is based on audited, real-money performance — not paper trading or hypothetical backtests.
The USIC result confirms that the CAN SLIM and VCP methodology, as applied by Trend Alpha, produces verifiable outperformance against both the market and a field of experienced professional traders.

Why Performance Fee Only?

Most asset managers charge a flat management fee of 1-2% of assets under management regardless of performance. A $500,000 account pays $5,000-$10,000 per year in fees even if the fund loses money.
Trend Alpha operates on a different model. There is no management fee. The only fee is a performance fee — charged exclusively on profits. If the portfolio does not grow, the client pays nothing.
This structure aligns incentives completely. The manager earns only when the client earns. It is the most honest fee structure in asset management, and it reflects the confidence we have in the CAN SLIM and VCP methodology.

Is CAN SLIM Right for Your Portfolio?

CAN SLIM and VCP are not passive strategies. They require active management, disciplined execution, and the ability to cut losses without hesitation. For investors who prefer a set-it-and-forget-it approach, index funds remain a reasonable choice.
But for investors who want to actively pursue returns that significantly exceed the market — and who understand that this requires a concentrated, disciplined approach — CAN SLIM combined with VCP offers a proven framework with decades of track record behind it.
If you are an investor with $100,000 or more and want to explore how this methodology can be applied to your capital, Trend Alpha offers private consultations to discuss strategy, risk parameters, and portfolio structure.
Book a Private Consultation
]]> Q1 2026 Results: CAN SLIM Strategy Stayed Positive While S&P 500 Fell -4% | Trend Alpha https://trendalphacorporation.com/tpost/can-slim-vcp-strategy-results-2026 https://trendalphacorporation.com/tpost/can-slim-vcp-strategy-results-2026?amp=true Sat, 04 Apr 2026 08:24:00 +0300 Trend Alpha's Pure US Growth returned +0.23% in Q1 2026 while the S&P 500 dropped -3.84%. See how our CAN SLIM and VCP strategy navigated the bear market correction with disciplined risk management.

Q1 2026 Results: CAN SLIM Strategy Stayed Positive While S&P 500 Fell -4% | Trend Alpha

Q1 2026 Results: How Our CAN SLIM Strategy Stayed Positive While the S&P 500 Fell -4%

By Victor Nelin, Founder of Trend Alpha Corporation | April 4, 2026
The first quarter of 2026 marked the end of the bull market. The S&P 500 dropped -3.84%, the Nasdaq fell even harder, and Bitcoin collapsed from $95,000 to below $67,000. Most investors gave back months of gains in a matter of weeks.
Our Pure US Growth strategy finished Q1 at +0.23%. Our Pure Crypto Growth strategy finished at -9.03% against the Bitwise 10 Index's -25.36%. Both strategies beat their benchmarks — not by making money, but by not losing it when everyone else did.
Here is our full track record for context. In 2024, Pure US Growth returned +85.3% versus the S&P 500's +25%, and Pure Crypto Growth returned +33.3% versus Bitwise 10's +7.27%. In 2025, Pure US Growth delivered +31.12% versus the S&P 500's +18.4%, and Pure Crypto Growth returned +33.54% versus Bitwise 10's +0.6%. And in Q1 2026, Pure US Growth eked out +0.23% versus the S&P 500's -3.84%, generating +4.07% of alpha. Pure Crypto Growth lost -9.03%, but that was +16.33% of alpha over the Bitwise 10's -25.36%.
The lesson? In a bear market, the best offense is defense.

What Happened in the Market During Q1 2026

January started with the S&P 500 near all-time highs. By March, the index had broken below its 200-day simple moving average — a level it hadn't breached since early 2025 — and entered a full correction. The Nasdaq fell harder, dragged down by technology sector weakness. The crypto market, which had been struggling since late 2025, continued its decline with Bitcoin falling nearly 30%.
The triggers were a combination of Trump administration tariffs, geopolitical escalation including US-Iran tensions and the Greenland situation, and a sharp rotation out of growth stocks into defensive sectors. By the end of March, only 20% of S&P 500 stocks were trading above their 50-day moving average — a level where market bottoms have historically formed, but without confirmation.
For momentum and growth investors like us, this environment means one thing: step aside and wait.

Pure US Growth: Why Doing Nothing Was Our Best Trade

Pure US Growth returned +0.23% in Q1 2026, outperforming the S&P 500 by +4.07%. The best trade of the quarter was the one we didn't make.

January — Active Trading With Quick Cuts

We started the year with an active approach. In January alone, the portfolio traded over 15 positions across growth stocks and ETFs. Our best single trade was FIX (Comfort Systems USA) — bought at $1,022, sold at $1,136 three weeks later for +11.11%. An excellent CAN SLIM setup with strong fundamentals in the infrastructure sector.
We also traded TQQQ (multiple round trips with mixed results), XMTR (Xometry, where one leg made +4.55%), NVT (nVent Electric, +4.09% on a full position with revenue growing +22% and accelerating EPS), and IBKR (Interactive Brokers, stopped out for -1.81%). Even quality setups fail in a deteriorating market, and IBKR was our early warning sign.

February — The Correction Begins

By mid-February, the market tone shifted dramatically. The S&P 500 started rolling over, and we began cutting exposure aggressively.
AXSM (Axsome Therapeutics) was our most painful trade — entered around $185, stopped out at $168 and $180 for losses of -9.01% and -2.42%. Strong fundamentals, but the market pulled the rug. On the other side, HROW (Harrow Health) delivered +8.66% as healthcare held up during the initial selloff. BWXT (BWX Technologies), a nuclear energy play, lost -3.07% — the defense thesis was right, but our timing was early. SHLS (Shoals Technologies) came out at essentially breakeven, the kind of flat outcome that feels like a loss but preserved capital.
By late February, we had moved to 80%+ cash and started hedging with inverse positions.

March — Cash Is King

March was our most disciplined month. As the S&P 500 broke below the 200-day simple moving average and institutional funds began liquidating, we made a conscious decision to sit on the sidelines.
We ran a few selective positions. A TQQQ short lost -5.86% as the market whipsawed with violent counter-rallies — even our short didn't work in this chop. But a probe short on EIS (iShares MSCI Israel Cap) gained +7.19% on geopolitical risk, and a short position in ELVR (Sayona Mining) returned +7.8% as a defensive play.
By the end of Q1, the portfolio was 100% in cash, preserving all gains and avoiding the worst of the correction.

Pure Crypto Growth: Managing the Bear Market

Pure Crypto Growth returned -9.03% in Q1 2026 versus the Bitwise 10 Index at -25.36%, generating +16.33% of alpha. The crypto strategy lost money — there is no sugarcoating that. But it lost dramatically less than the benchmark, and the reason is the same discipline that drives the US equity strategy: cut losses fast and move to cash when the trend breaks.
In January, we made our last long attempts. BCH (Bitcoin Cash) was sold at $585 for -8.86%, one of our first signals the crypto cycle was turning. BNB (Binance Coin) saw multiple entries in the $942-950 range, each getting rejected with small losses. Our last major long was BTC at $95,027, sold at $91,194 for -4.03%.
By February and March we were in full defensive mode, making only probe-sized attempts. LINK (Chainlink) lost -6.46% as the DeFi recovery narrative failed to materialize. XLM (Stellar) was our biggest single-trade dollar loss of the quarter at -4.78%. XRP eked out a small +0.9% gain — one of the few crypto trades that worked.
By mid-March, the Pure Crypto Growth portfolio was 100% in cash, where it remains today. Every follow-through day attempt has failed. Bitcoin has been rejected at the 21 and 50-day moving averages simultaneously — four times. We will re-enter when the trend confirms, not before.

Four Key Lessons From a Bear Market Quarter

Cash is a position, not a failure. The most counterintuitive thing about Q1 is that our best performance came from not trading. While the S&P 500 dropped nearly 4%, we eked out a small positive return on the US strategy entirely through selective entries and aggressive cash management.
Cut losses fast — even on good setups. Several Q1 trades had excellent fundamental profiles. AXSM, NVT, and AIP all had strong earnings and growth metrics. They still lost money because the market environment was deteriorating. Our rule remains unchanged: -5% to -7% maximum loss per position, no exceptions. This rule saved us from much larger drawdowns.
Don't fight the trend. When the S&P 500 broke below the 200-day simple moving average in March, we stopped looking for long setups entirely. We shifted to selective short positions and kept the portfolio in cash. Fighting a bear market is how traders give back years of gains in weeks.
The market tells you when it's ready. We see excellent setups forming right now — FIX, NBIS, HCC, and others. But we are not buying them. Not because they are bad setups, but because the market is not cooperating. Patience is not passive — it is the most active form of risk management.

Q2 2026 Outlook: What We Are Watching

We are entering Q2 in full defensive mode. Both portfolios are 100% in cash.
For the US market, the S&P 500 attempted a strong bounce in the first week of April — it looked like a short squeeze — but could not hold above the 200-day simple moving average. Market breadth jumped from 20% to 29% in three days, which is interesting but not conclusive. Earnings season starts soon, which could be the catalyst for either a recovery or a deeper correction. Historically, corrections last 3 to 9 months.
For crypto, the Bitwise 10 index is stuck below the 200-day moving average, and Bitcoin has failed four consecutive follow-through days. Declining volatility is the one encouraging sign — it often precedes trend changes. We would love for this to be the bottom, but we will not bet on hope.
For our portfolios, we have a clear watchlist: FIX (Comfort Systems), NBIS (Nebius Group), HCC (Warrior Met Coal), and several others forming late-stage bases. When the market confirms a new uptrend, we will be ready to deploy aggressively. Until then, cash is king.

About Trend Alpha Corporation

Trend Alpha Corporation is a capital management firm founded by Victor Nelin, a 9th-place finisher in the 2024 United States Investing Championship with an +85.3% annual return. Our methodology is rooted in the teachings of Mark Minervini, William O'Neil, and Stan Weinstein — systematic stock selection through the CAN SLIM and VCP (Volatility Contraction Pattern) framework with strict risk management.
We manage portfolios across US equities, cryptocurrency, real estate, and venture investments for clients with a minimum of $100,000.
Managing your own capital and looking for a systematic approach? Book a free 30-minute consultation to discuss your portfolio strategy, structure, and tax optimization.
This report is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to buy securities. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investment decisions and associated risks are solely the responsibility of the reader.
Victor Nelin | Founder, Trend Alpha Corporation | trendalphacorporation.com
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